China's steel exports are poised to hit a record high this year. The latest customs data shows that exports of semi-finished steel products reached 1.58 million tons in July, marking a 34.4% increase month-on-month and a substantial 349% surge year-on-year. This propelled total steel exports for the month to 11.416 million tons, ranking as the fourth-highest on record.

From January to July this year, China's cumulative exports of semi-finished steel products reached 7.478 million tons, a 309.5% year-on-year increase. Combined exports of finished and semi-finished steel products totaled 75.461 million tons, marking a 20.1% year-on-year growth. Meanwhile, imports fell 27.9% year-on-year, resulting in a net export volume of 71.426 million tons, up 24.8% year-on-year.

Industry projections indicate exports will remain elevated through August and September. On one hand, exporters are concentrating shipments to prepare for potentially stricter tax evasion trade inspections starting October 1. On the other hand, recent domestic steel price rebounds have bolstered domestic orders and profits for steel mills, particularly driven by recovering demand from manufacturing and solar photovoltaic sectors, which has somewhat dampened export enthusiasm.

However, the current export surge may have partially preempted future demand. Analysts anticipate a notable decline in steel exports in October, with a significant year-on-year drop. Furthermore, anti-dumping measures against Chinese flat steel products in international markets continue to increase, while trade restrictions on products like hot-rolled coil intensify in regions such as Vietnam and South Korea, maintaining export pressure.

Nevertheless, the export outlook for long products like billets and wire rods remains positive, as these primarily target regions with lower trade barriers such as Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Traders note that with domestic steel price adjustments and increased supply, China's steel products are expected to regain competitiveness in international markets.

Overall, despite a possible temporary correction in exports during the fourth quarter, the total volume of steel exports for the year is still projected to surpass last year's figures, achieving a new breakthrough.